What happened
The week before the State of the Union made its own case. Within two days, a Russian frigate fired flares at a Danish military helicopter over the Baltic, and NATO jets shot down an explosive-laden drone that had crossed into Lithuania from Belarus.
The IISS counts 144 suspected drone sightings across a dozen NATO countries and Ireland, peaking in late 2025, and judges a coordinated Russian campaign "highly likely".
About 20 Russian military drones cross into Polish airspace. Poland invokes NATO Article 4, and NATO launches Operation Eastern Sentry.
The Commission publishes its Action Plan on Drone and Counter-Drone Security, with binding EU rules targeted for 2030.
An attempted attack with an explosive drone at Leipzig/Halle airport, base for Ukraine's Antonov Airlines and a hub for allied arms to Ukraine. On 1 September Germany formally blames Russia.
Flares over the Baltic, a drone shot down over Lithuania, then von der Leyen's call in Strasbourg for a new security protocol.
Europe's own Article 4, or an Emergency Security Protocol.
Sources
RFE/RL: Explosive-laden drone shot down over Lithuania (15 Sep 2026)
Bloomberg: NATO shoots down drone that entered Lithuanian airspace (15 Sep 2026)
Breaking Defense: EU chief calls for new hybrid response protocol (16 Sep 2026)
AP via KSAT: Von der Leyen calls for EU security mechanism (16 Sep 2026)
CNN: Germany blames Russia for drone attack on Leipzig airport (1 Sep 2026)
Defense News: German government blames Russia for Leipzig airport drone attack (2 Sep 2026)
Al Jazeera: Germany accuses Russia of failed drone attack on Leipzig airport (1 Sep 2026)
TVP World: IISS says Russia used shadow fleet in drone campaign (2 Jul 2026)
ABC News / AP: Russia waged drone campaign over Europe (2 Jul 2026)
ECFR: Buzzkill, how to defend Europe against drones (18 Aug 2026)
European Commission: Action Plan on Drone and Counter-Drone Security (11 Feb 2026)